“Now is the winter of our discontent” is a phrase uttered by Richard in Shakespeare’s Richard III.
The summer of discontent in 2024 will be defined by three things that can never be believed: truth, possibility, and logic.
In his monologue, Richard states:
Now we have victory wreaths on our foreheads.
Our wounded arms were held up as monuments, our grim alarms were turned into cheerful rallies, our terrible marches into joyous rhythms. War, with its grim face, smoothed its wrinkled features.
Shakespeare experts assert that the message indicates that bad times are over. The throngs of tourists that have dotted the beaches of Netanya and Tel Aviv in past years will likely be absent this summer, even if a ceasefire is announced. (Photo by Mark Israel Sellem/The Jerusalem Post)
After nearly eight months of death and destruction, with hostages still held in the hands of the barbaric Hamas and its allies, I see no such message this coming summer. Like a pebble thrown in water, the ripples of this war will reverberate throughout Israel and the Jewish people for years.
Indeed, most experts and many Israelis believe the war will end quietly, not with fanfare.
This brought to the fore a level of anti-Semitism in both Europe and North America not seen since the rise of Nazi Germany.
Our defenders are few and far between, and anti-Semites, fueled by billions of dollars, are penetrating and altering the consciousness of millions. Israel is no longer seen as a land flowing with milk and honey, or as a rising nation. Israel and the Jewish people are portrayed as abusers and purveyors of all the evils of the world.
El Al will make big profits
The semi-national airline El Al has once again posted record profits in the first quarter of this year. On the surface, the figures are hard to believe. The company posted a profit of $80.5 million in the fourth quarter after posting a loss of $34 million in the same period of 2023. Revenues rose 48% in the first quarter to $738 million, a 9% increase from the fourth quarter of 2023, when the war broke out on October 7.
It is true that El Al airfares have also reached historic levels, sparking consumer complaints and signs of government intervention.
“Declare a monopoly,” said many populist politicians, accusing the airline of possibly engaging in price gouging in the middle of a war that has nearly 80% of the market share. “Boycott” has been circulating in many internet memes and Instagram posts. If you go to Athens or Europe and switch to a foreign airline, you could save hundreds of dollars.
Of course, politicians and populists alike forget that El Al’s 80% market share is not due to good marketing, or favorable reports about El Al’s security, or the veteran retired Israeli Air Force pilots who fly its planes. It’s because there is no competition. Where are Air Canada, American Airlines, Delta, United? Has anyone seen Cathay Pacific landing at Ben Gurion Airport?
Their absence does not reek of cowardice or anti-Semitism, as many have suggested, but is the result of a simple business model that recognises that tourist numbers to our beleaguered country are not as high during the war.
Yes, the unions of these airlines refuse to accommodate their flights in Israel if they are at war. Unlike British Airways, which has resumed flights but picked up its crew in Larnaca so they don’t have to spend the night in a Tel Aviv hotel, the airlines mentioned above have chosen not to follow that option. Insurance premiums for airlines flying to and from Israel are reaching record highs, but most European airlines pay that price to fly to and from Tel Aviv.
Breaking news: United and Delta are resuming daily flights from Newark and John F. Kennedy airports, respectively. Delta made a big fuss about returning to Ben Gurion airport after an eight-month absence, but United’s return has come with less fanfare. Both airlines are itching to enjoy the higher fares set by El Al, and with so few Americans planning to fly here this spring and summer, they’re not going to start a price war by lowering fares.
Will they stay if the situation in Lebanon worsens? I’m skeptical.
What many of us who care deeply about Israel forget is that we are not at the center of the earth. Just as many in the West don’t even know what happened on October 7th, vast swaths of the world don’t care about Israel or its people at all. Can we really claim that billions of people in India or China or most of South America know about Israel?
Dutch airline KLM has announced that it will stop flying from Amsterdam to Tel Aviv for the whole of July and August. The most famous phrase in Dutch is “Het is zoals het is”. That’s reality. KLM did not stop flying in May or June, but only in July and August. New anti-Semitic hoaxes floating through the canals of Amsterdam? No, KLM simply did the math and decided that with fewer Dutch tourists coming to Israel this summer, they could use their planes for much more profitable routes.
El Al CEO Dina Ben Tal Ghanassia has been a dynamic executive during the war, positioning her airline as one that will keep flying against all odds. Flying casualties and survivors overseas is just one small step El Al has taken, as is offering discounts to soldiers.
She denies accusations that El Al is using the war to jack up prices, arguing it’s a matter of supply and demand. She has reportedly urged foreign airlines to resume flights to Israel and “restore stability to the regional aviation market.” That’s a noble move, but be careful what you wish for.
So let’s explore what’s likely to happen this summer, starting with the North American corridor.
It’s likely that one way or another, both Delta and United will resume flying between the US and Israel. They might just do it on a daily basis, but airline executives will read how much money El Al is making, see the fares El Al is getting, understand that the market is underserved, and understand that they can easily enter the market by making huge profits on their own routes.
Would they have to increase the pay scale for flight crew flying to and from Israel? Probably. Would they try to get some support from the Israeli government, as has been given to low-cost airlines in the past? Probably. The Israeli government covers 100% of the security costs for all three Israeli airlines, Arkia, El Al and Israir. An argument could be made that some kind of subsidy should be given to airlines flying back from the US.
If by some miracle a ceasefire were announced and implemented, many more airlines would rush back to Tel Aviv.
Israelis probably won’t expect airfares to fall with the airlines’ revival: high season and increased demand to Europe and North America (where tourists are reluctant to fly in summer, unlike India) will keep airfares high.
More importantly, even if a ceasefire is announced, it will mean that the throngs of tourists that dot the beaches of Netanya and Tel Aviv, and crowd Jerusalem’s Mahane Yehuda market and Ben Yehuda pedestrian mall, will not be seen this summer. Leisure travelers make their summer plans well in advance, and no longer plan to roam Israel after October 7.
As the coronavirus pandemic subsided, the hotel industry bounced back with a vengeance, charging unprecedented rates, and restaurants around the world raised menu prices by tens of percent to capitalize on tourists’ return to modest lodgings.
If you’re planning summer travel, be careful about purchasing with foreign airlines until we know if the ceasefire will hold. Be careful, but don’t ignore those airlines completely. Buyer beware. Know what happens if an airline stops flying. What kind of refund will I get? Cash or credit? Will the airline change me to an airline that’s still operating? These are questions you need to be asking now, more than ever.
Buying travel online should be carefully considered. You may save money, but today it’s service that counts. Israeli travel agencies and their consultants are booming precisely because in these uncertain times we all want and crave some control in our lives. Having a human being to work with gives you control.
Israeli businessmen are traveling at a record high this year. Our war has had no effect on the global business community, because the U.S. economy is doing well and inflation is not as much of a threat as economists feared. Travel calendars are overflowing with meetings and conferences.
El Al has benefited greatly from this. My business clients range from doctors living in Israel but working in the US to Israeli executives in AI and food tech companies. They all have one thing in common: they need to travel to meet partners, suppliers and customers.
2023 has been an extremely challenging year for the tech market, its people and families. The Israeli tech ecosystem has been hit by the worst of the global economic situation, the Israeli political situation and the outbreak of war, making it extremely difficult to operate, raise funds and invest.
2024 will be a very different year. More than 10 Israeli companies have been acquired this year for more than $2 billion, seven of which are in the cybersecurity industry. Israeli cloud security company Wiz just raised $1 billion, and the average salary in Israel’s tech industry is at an all-time high.
Logically, this war will end. When, how, and the political ramifications are still unknown. The end game remains elusive. We live in the middle of a hurricane that is wreaking havoc everywhere it makes landfall. But it will end.
The author is CEO of Ziontours and Director of Diesenhaus in Jerusalem. For questions or comments, please email mark.feldman@ziontours.co.il.
