Multiple open and covert wars have brought the Middle East to the brink.
Rising tensions between Iran and Israel are complicating efforts to pull the Middle East back from the abyss.
Escalation between Israel and Iran has the greatest potential to push the Middle East off a cliff, as the two arch-enemies walk a fine line between secret and open war.
It comes as multiple other conflicts, including the Gaza war, hostilities along the Lebanon-Israel border, Yemen’s Houthi attacks on ships in the Gulf, and Iraqi militia attacks on Israel, cause conflagrations and snitching across the region. That’s not to say it wasn’t possible. The balance of conflict between Israel and Iran.
A powerful explosion at an Iranian-backed Iraqi militia base south of Baghdad early Saturday threatened to undermine the perceived new level of deterrence in Israeli-Iranian relations.
Iraq’s Shiite militia, the Popular Mobilization Forces, blamed Israel for the attack, although Islamic State was another potential culprit.
U.S. and Israeli officials quickly denied any involvement in the incident, but Israel, unlike the United States, did not issue an official statement.
“There were no drones or fighter aircraft in the airspace of Babil before or during the explosion,” the Iraqi military said.
Israel has a history of being selective about which incidents it comments on, but statements by Israeli officials about the background, regardless of whether Israel is responsible for the attack, are a sign that both countries have been escalating tensions with Iran for weeks. This suggests that they have continued to do so. Countries were on the brink of war.
The US and Israeli denials followed a series of retaliatory attacks that threatened to drag Israel, Iran, and potentially the US into an all-out war in the Middle East.
Nevertheless, if Israel was held responsible for the Iraq explosion, the attack suggested that Israel intended to return to the secret war following attacks on each other’s territory by Israel and Iran. I will do it.
The retaliation began on April 1, when Israel bombed the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing seven Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps operatives, including two top commanders. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the attack.
The attack took the concept of deterrence to a new level, even though Israeli officials insisted they did not view the attack on the consulate as an escalation of the secret war Israel has long targeted against Iran.
The Gaza war has moved Syria into the arena of the secret conflict between Israel and Iran. Israel has killed scores of Iranian operatives in undeclared attacks in Syria since Gaza erupted in October.
This month, Iran fired its first barrage of drones and missiles at Israel from its 1979 territory, establishing a new line in the conflict and vowing to respond harshly to any attack on Iranian interests. It also includes Iran’s non-state allies in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
Israel’s denial of involvement in the Iraq incident is an endorsement of Iran’s new red lines, even though there is no guarantee that Israel will abide by them.
Similarly, if Israel attacked an Iraqi militia base, this denial suggests that Israel intended to call Iran’s bluff without endangering the Islamic Republic.
Iran has come under a barrage of drones and missiles and declared it does not want further escalation, but Israel responded to this barrage with just 300,000 people in Isfahan, home to important military bases, military industrial facilities and nuclear facilities. A drone was dispatched.
Like the Iranian barrage, the Israeli drone was also shot down before it could hit its target. Israel did not confirm or deny responsibility for the attack.
Nevertheless, Israel’s message was clear. “We are undaunted and chose Isfahan to demonstrate Iran’s ability to strike key targets, but we do not want to escalate hostilities.” This suggests Iran will downplay the attack and not respond. It was a message that was acknowledged by doing so.
Israel used an unidentified weapon in the attack to evade Iranian systems that detect and counter threats to the Nantaz nuclear facility. This demonstrated Israel’s ability to evade Iranian defenses and paralyze Iran undetected, while channeling some of the firepower that Iran used in attacks on Israel. , according to the New York Times.
Meanwhile, the Gaza war moved Syria into the arena. Israel has killed numerous Iranian operatives in undeclared attacks in Syria since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7.
While Iran may be a determining factor in the potential escalation of tensions in the Middle East, Gaza holds the key to pulling the Middle East back from the brink.
Even if ceasefire negotiations stall, the scope for a resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will remain intact once Israeli-Iranian tensions ease, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his potential successor will play a role. It’s hard to imagine that. .
The Biden administration, which may have read too much into Arab support to thwart a barrage of Iranian drone and missile attacks, has, against all expectations, resolved the Palestinian issue and strengthened U.S. relations with Gulf states. and reinvigorated efforts to more fully close major deals. Integrate Israel into the region.
U.S. officials argue that this assistance shows that resolving the Israeli-Palestinian issue will substantially strengthen Israel’s security.
It would remove obstacles to Israel’s expansion of regional diplomatic relations, with Saudi Arabia as its crown jewel, and open the door to strengthening military and security ties, including an integrated regional air defense system.
The Biden administration appears willing to accept Saudi Arabia’s price tag on this deal. The US would guarantee Saudi defense, but this proposition is likely to face headwinds in the US Congress. US support for Saudi Arabia’s peaceful nuclear program. And in exchange for Saudi recognition of the state of Israel, there will be a credible and irreversible Israeli-Palestinian peace process.
Paralleling US efforts to freeze the war in Gaza, Arab states are privately touting their own plans to go further by including provisions for an end date for the fighting in Gaza.
Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Jordan and Egypt postponed formal announcements of their plans at the request of the Biden administration.
The plan calls for an immediate and permanent ceasefire in Gaza, the replacement of Israeli forces with predominantly Arab peacekeeping forces in Gaza and the West Bank at the invitation of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, and a Restructuring of autonomous government is required. Its role is secondary and is a time-limited negotiation process to ensure that the Israeli-Palestinian peace process does not drag on indefinitely.
“Gaza has raised the bar. There can be no normalization without addressing the national rights of the Palestinian people. Iran’s attacks on Israel demonstrate that Israel shares common interests with Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries. The question is whether Israel is capable and willing to take that position,” the Arab diplomat said.
